GTA 6 Won't Save The Struggling Games Industry, Expert Says

GAMING NEWS

Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 6 is widely predicted to be a massive release — one analyst even called it potentially the most important launch for the industry in years. Still, Joost van Dreunen, an analyst and NYU Stern professor, warns that GTA 6 is not a cure-all for the broader health and stability problems facing the games business.

Van Dreunen told IGN that while GTA 6 will likely post enormous sales — some estimates project 40 million copies and roughly $3 billion in revenue in year one — people shouldn't expect the title to resolve systemic industry issues on its own.

“After the high comes the hangover,” van Dreunen said. He noted that many in the industry are hoping one blockbuster will reverse the sector’s downward momentum, but he thinks that expectation is unrealistic.

When GTA 6 launches, gamers and investors will likely enjoy the immediate surge in attention and sales. But van Dreunen predicts a sober period could follow: if similar mega-releases don't appear soon after, investors may move their money elsewhere and the industry's overall valuation could fall.

The industry has endured layoffs, rising prices, and canceled projects in recent years, trends that a single successful game probably won't undo. Voices across the business have argued that current AAA economics are fragile; former PlayStation executive Shawn Layden has warned the model is unsustainable, and in 2012 Assassin’s Creed III director Alex Hutchinson described the unbridled chase for ever-larger AAA projects as a kind of “cancerous growth.” Hutchinson has said he expects that trend to wane, leaving blockbuster AAAs as the last of their kind.

GTA 6 is currently scheduled for release in November 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, after a pushback from May 2026.

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